NAR ‘s Head Economist Speaks: Market Stabilization, Pent-up Demand, Shrinking Inventory, and Vacation Home Sales


The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently released some interesting numbers regarding the pending sales for March 2014. According to NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, the national market has witnessed an overall increase of 3.4%  – over the prior month of February 2014. Based on those numbers, Mr. Yun has pronounced that the market looks to be stabilizing – See Chart Below. Quick to point out that while the market has increased 3.4% over the last 30 days, the overall housing market is down approximately 7.9% from one year ago.

NAR Says Pending Sales Rise in March

NAR Says Pending Sales Rise in March

Highlighting the overall effect of our national buyers pent up demand to perform, Mr. Yun noted that the US real estate market has “turned the corner.” Although he continued with a somewhat obvious caveat, “but I’m not sure of the strength of the recovery.”

When further questioned over which segment of the US real estate market looked to be on track to making the fastest recovery, Mr. Yun was quick to point to the upper end of the market (of course), “Bolstered by a five-year run on the Bull [stock ] market,” those homes over $1 million or more – are making the fastest recovery.

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And in keeping with the wealthy doing well… Vacation home purchases have also seen a steady increase over the past 24 months – enjoying an uptick of over 30% from 2012 to 2013.  While making significant gains over the past few years, the vacation sector still has a long way to go before reaching the heights of the 2005/2006 real estate market. Unfortunately, as seems to always be the case, the lower end of the market is continuing to lag behind.

Build baby build…

According to Mr. Yun, because of an overall lack of inventory throughout the US at the bottom end of the market, that sector has suffered the most. With a diminished US inventory of affordable housing being a primary concern, NAR’s chief economist noted that the data he was looking at showed that a significant upturn in new construction starts had already begun. And according to his logic, more homes…mean more buyers.

Housing Starts Down

Housing Starts Down

Go out make it a great Thursday…

Learning is a gift… Even when pain is your teacher” ~ Maya Watson